New Algorithmic Standards and Migration Policies Set to Drive Post-Quantum Cryptography Market to $1 Billion by 2030

Key Takeaways

Global demand for Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) solutions is set to grow rapidly, driven by new U.S. NIST standards and targets for 2030.
Initial market focus will be on assessment and planning, leading to an expected $255 million in global PQC services by the end of the year.
A surge of emerging companies is providing dedicated PQC services, indicating substantial growth and market opportunities in the sector.

Market Dynamics for Post-Quantum Cryptography

The commercialization of Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) solutions is gaining momentum. ABI Research anticipates that market growth will be robust and accelerate over the next five years, even amidst economic uncertainties. Recent developments, including the publication of U.S. NIST PQC standards (FIPS 203, 204, and 205) and various national policies aimed at dictating PQC transition timelines, underscore the urgency of PQC migration. The retirement of RSA and ECC signals an inevitable shift towards PQC.

Michela Menting, senior research director at ABI Research, emphasizes that 2030 has been set as the target year for the transition to PQC for critical sectors, including government and defense, within North America, the EU, and parts of the Asia-Pacific. These sectors must begin planning their migration strategies now to meet these deadlines, which will involve a lengthy and intricate process requiring expert guidance throughout various phases of migration.

The initial phase will focus on assessment and planning, driving a significant demand for PQC services related to cryptographic asset discovery, inventory management, and transition strategies. This initial demand is projected to generate approximately $255 million globally by the year’s end. The subsequent phase will emphasize the updating or migration to new systems that integrate PQC technologies. Organizations will require commercial point solutions, ideally off-the-shelf options, for seamless implementation. ABI Research predicts that the growth of these point solutions will be particularly dynamic, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 63%.

Numerous small companies specializing in PQC are entering the market with tailored services and technology solutions. Notable names include PQShield, Post-Quantum Solutions, CryptoNext Security, and several others, each focused on developing strong cryptographic libraries and applications. These startups are complemented by established digital security firms, such as Thales, IBM, and DigiCert, which are offering consulting services and PQC technology integrations.

Despite the nascent state of the PQC market, there is an absence of comprehensive standards for protocols and primitives. This gap presents significant commercial opportunities for tailored integration and specialization across different end markets and applications. The clear timeline for adoption fosters an expectation of exponential market growth in the coming years.

These insights are derived from ABI Research’s report on the Post-Quantum Cryptography market, part of its Quantum Safe Technologies research service which encompasses extensive research, data, and ABI Insights.

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