Key Takeaways
- USDA’s September WASDE report forecasts a decline in U.S. corn production to 15.8 billion bushels, while soybean production is expected to rise to 4.5 billion bushels.
- Projected corn yield decreases to 178.5 bushels per acre due to weather challenges; soybean yield slightly increases to 52.8 bushels per acre.
- Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans have surged ahead of a high-profile meeting, with commitments for at least 25 million metric tons annually from 2026 through 2028.
USDA Reduces Corn Forecast While Increasing Soybean Projections
The USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for the 2026-2027 marketing year indicates significant shifts in crop production forecasts. Corn production is projected to decline to 15.8 billion bushels, down by 213 million from the previous month’s estimate, which had already anticipated a drop from earlier projections. The decrease in harvested area has caught markets off guard, as Karen Braun, chief market analyst at Zaner Ag Hedge, noted that the U.S. corn harvested area came in below both trade expectations and prior estimates.
In contrast, soybean production shows an upward trend, expected to increase to 4.5 billion bushels, which is a 16-million-bushel rise from August estimates. The WASDE report indicates an increase in soybean harvested area alongside a small yield increase, bringing the projected yield to 52.8 bushels per acre. The gains in soybean production are encouraging, with most top-producing states experiencing positive changes. Louisiana has reported the most significant yield increase at 12.8%, while declines were noted in North Dakota and Kansas.
Average farm prices for corn and soybeans have also adjusted, with corn prices projected at $4.80 per bushel, reflecting a slight rise from $4.50. For soybeans, the season-average price is forecasted at $12 per bushel, marking a 60-cent increase from the previous month.
Additionally, the report highlights a strategic move by China to ramp up purchases of U.S. soybeans ahead of President Xi Jinping’s upcoming visit to Washington. China is expected to buy approximately 1 million metric tons of soybeans this week, building on a commitment of 12 million metric tons for late 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually from 2026 through 2028.
The USDA also reported no change in the overall U.S. wheat supply and use, adjusting specific categories such as white wheat and hard red winter exports. Global wheat consumption has increased, although world trade has faced declines due to ongoing conflicts affecting logistics.
In the dairy sector, forecasts indicate increased milk production for 2026 and 2027, driven by higher cow inventories and output per cow. Adjustments to commercial imports reflect mixed results, with reduced imports of casein and miscellaneous dairy products, while butter imports see an uptick.
Moreover, USDA projections include an increase in beef imports from South America, as the administration aims to lower beef prices. The plan includes allowing 300,000 metric tons of lean beef trimmings to be imported tariff-free for 90 days, supplementing existing agreements for Argentine beef.
Overall, the WASDE report offers critical insights into U.S. agricultural production trends and trade dynamics as market conditions evolve ahead of significant international discussions.
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