Key Takeaways
- Adobe forecasts $253.4 billion in online spending for the 2025 holiday season, a 5.3% increase from last year.
- Mobile spending is predicted to account for 56.1% of total revenue, with $143.7 billion during the holiday season.
- Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) spending is expected to rise by 11%, totaling $20.2 billion this holiday season.
Record Online Spending Expected
Adobe has unveiled its projections for the 2025 holiday shopping season, predicting a record-breaking $253.4 billion will be spent online from November 1 to November 23. This represents a rise of 5.3% compared to 2024. Additionally, for the entire season ending November 28, total online spending is anticipated to reach $123.17 billion, marking a 7.2% year-on-year increase. Notably, mobile spending will also see significant growth, with a projected total of $65.5 billion—a 7.1% increase from last year.
Prominent shopping days like Black Friday and Cyber Monday are expected to see strong sales, particularly in the cosmetics sector, which is forecasted to generate $8.4 billion in 2025, compared to $7.7 billion in 2024. Among the top-selling products are cosmetics and skincare sets, the Dyson Airwrap Multi Styler, and fragrances.
Impact of AI on E-Commerce
Artificial intelligence is reshaping the holiday shopping landscape. This season, traffic to retail websites from AI sources is anticipated to increase by 515-520% compared to 2024. In the broader timeframe from November 1 to November 30, AI traffic saw a staggering 770% year-on-year rise, evident across both mobile and desktop platforms.
In terms of device usage, desktop referrals accounted for 74.4% of traffic, while mobile contributed 25.6%. For the first time, mobile is expected to surpass 50% of overall online spending, with an impressive forecast of 52.6% of revenue share attributed to mobile devices during this period. Adobe projects that mobile revenue will reach $143.7 billion and that 7 out of 10 visits to retail sites will occur on mobile devices.
Growth of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) Services
The Buy Now, Pay Later option continues to gain traction among consumers during the holiday season. Between November 1 and November 30, BNPL spending via mobile platforms is expected to reach $7.5 billion. Adobe anticipates a total of $20.2 billion will be spent using this payment method from November 1 to December 31, 2025, which translates into an 11% growth over the previous year.
As the holiday shopping season approaches, these trends indicate a significant shift in consumer behavior, highlighting the rising dominance of mobile shopping and innovative payment methods. Retailers are urged to adapt to these changes to maximize their sales potential during this crucial period.
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