Key Takeaways
- Aligning renewable energy goals with development policies could lift 193 million people out of extreme poverty by 2060.
- The UNDP study predicts USD 20.4 trillion in global savings through enhanced renewable energy strategies.
- The most ambitious scenario could raise global GDP by 21% and provide universal access to electricity and clean water.
Study Overview
A recent study by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), in collaboration with the University of Denver’s Pardee Institute and Octopus Energy, has highlighted the potential of aligning renewable energy initiatives with broader development policies. The report indicates that doing so could lift 193 million individuals out of extreme poverty by 2060 while unlocking USD 20.4 trillion in cumulative savings for the global economy.
The research examined three scenarios to analyze the outcomes of varying energy strategies on emissions, economic growth, and social progress.
In the first, or “business-as-usual” scenario, reliance on fossil fuels persists, comprising over 50% of primary energy by 2060. This path could lead to a global temperature rise of 2.6°C, worsening conditions such as poverty and malnutrition, and restricting access to essential services like electricity and safe water.
The second scenario imagines a significant acceleration in renewable energy deployment, following the first Global Stocktake’s recommendation to triple renewable energy usage and double energy efficiency. Under this approach, fossil fuels would decrease to just 12% of the energy mix by 2060, potentially limiting temperature rise to below 2°C.
However, the most transformative outcomes are projected in the third scenario, which combines rapid renewable energy expansion with investments in health, education, and infrastructure. This ambitious pathway aims for universal electricity access and clean cooking facilities, potentially rescuing 142 million people from malnutrition and providing 550 million more individuals with access to clean water and sanitation.
Cassie Flynn, UNDP’s Global Director of Climate Change, remarked, “This study shows us that a clean energy future is possible – but we must choose to embed renewable ambition into climate plans linked to inclusive development policies.”
In addition to social benefits, the study predicts that the third scenario could generate USD 8.9 trillion in energy efficiency savings and USD 11.5 trillion from falling renewable costs. It also estimates a 21% increase in global GDP and a rise of USD 6,000 in per capita income by 2060.
Greg Jackson, founder of Octopus Energy, emphasized the potential of clean energy to enhance lives. “Renewables can offer the chance to bring electricity to hundreds of millions of people, improving lives and driving growth,” he stated.
Despite the projected increase in renewable power capacity, expected to reach 4,448 GW by 2025, fossil fuels currently dominate the energy landscape, representing over 70% of the global supply. In 2024, fossil fuels accounted for a significant portion of the 2.2% increase in energy demand, reflecting a slowdown in energy efficiency growth.
Jonathan Moyer, Director of the Pardee Institute, urged global leaders to adopt these strategies. He stated, “This research shows it is possible to balance global development with environmental protection while managing the inherent trade-offs.” The call for action highlights the need for immediate measures to facilitate a transition towards a sustainable energy future.
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